Horizon scanning can be integrated into a broader futures-thinking or foresight framework. In this report, the committee has adopted a definition similar to that used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): horizon scanning is “a technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities, with emphasis on new technology and its effects on the issue at hand” ( OECD, n.d.a). In some cases, for example, the overall process of structured reflection on the future is referred to as “horizon scanning” ( UK Government Office for Science, 2013), while in others it is termed “foresight” or “future(s) thinking” ( FAO, 2013). The terminology around relevant tools, techniques, and processes involved in horizon scanning has yet to be standardized, which can lead to confusion. Horizon scanning is therefore not about predicting the future, but focused on the early detection of weak signals as indicators of potential change. This helps ensure that policies are resilient to different future environments. Horizon scanning helps government to analyze whether it is adequately prepared for potential opportunities and threats. It’s not about making predictions, but systematically investigating evidence about future trends. As noted by Daniel Flynn from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, these tools “are for future planning in a world where the future cannot be known.” 1 Such tools are commonly used to help shape policy so that entities (such as governments or organizations) are more resilient and better placed to take effective action ( IRM, 2018). Integrating horizon scanning into a broader foresight process will enable better policy making in the near term, providing for the ongoing timely identification of additional strategies that may be needed to safeguard new technologies and data, and for assessment of their implications for innovation and biosecurity.Ī range of tools can be used to think about future risks and opportunities in a structured manner.
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